Stock market weakness could continue in week ahead as looming government shutdown adds to fears
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Headwinds are piling up for the market heading into the final week of the month, as September lives up to its reputation as a horrible month for Wall Street. All three major averages are headed for losses this month, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite sliding by more than 5% — though the index does remain 26% higher this year. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are also down 3.9% and 2%, respectively. However, market participants worry that stocks have further to fall. Wolfe Research’s Rob Ginsberg pointed out in a note this week that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn’t suggest much fear in markets. .VIX YTD mountain VIX The VIX, a popular measure of fear in markets, was last at a 16 handle — far below its long-term average of about 20 — despite labor strikes in the auto industry, a possible government shutdown and rising Treasury yields. “We have the strike, we have the geopolitics, we have the debt ceiling. The last time there was a debt ceiling debate in 2011, VIX went to 45, so we’re under a 20 handle right now,” RBC’s Amy Wu Silverman said Friday on CNBC’s ” Squawk Box .” “I’m not saying that we could hit that 45 but there is historical precedent for it,” she added. “And I think that overall nervousness is something that will keep that headwind going.” Potential government shutdown Investors are growing worried an agreement to avoid a shutdown is unlikely with just a little over a week left to go before the end of the fiscal year in Washington. A government shutdown is not likely to hurt financial markets. But, it could delay the release of key economic data, such as inflation figures. That could handicap the Federal Reserve at its next policy meeting. It may also further hurt consumer confidence and slow the economy. “If the shutdown lasts for a month or more, the Fed would essentially be flying blind at its November meeting, having learned very little about economic activity and price pressures since the September meeting,” Bank of America U.S. economist Aditya Bhave said in a note. Lawmakers need to reach a deal by 11:59 p.m. ET on Sept. 30 to avoid a shutdown. On the other hand, the weakness resulting from a potential shutdown, in addition to an autoworkers’ strike, could mean the Fed may decide it’s done hiking rates for the year — especially as they opt for a higher-for-longer policy, according to Shannon Saccocia, investment chief at NB Private Wealth. “I think the Fed is putting more emphasis on not cutting rates as quickly and so perhaps that gives them some cover to not go in November or even December,” Saccocia said. “We have a potential shutdown in Washington, as well as the UAW strike, which could potentially create some volatility in jobs data in particular.” “So maybe those two combined with this higher-for-longer dotplot allow the Fed to not push any higher, but remain at those levels for longer instead,” she said. More headwinds A government shutdown is not the only concern weighing on markets recently. Higher yields and a stronger dollar have added pressure to equities, as has the ongoing auto workers’ strike against the big Detroit carmakers. “If you think back to year to date, there’s just overwhelming bearishness in the market — you saw it in equity strategist’s price targets — and the market really surprised everyone. And so there was this catch up trade that happened,” RBC’s Wu Silverman said. “And now from a positioning perspective, you went from having nothing to hedge, needing to participate, to having something to hedge. And that’s the difference that we’re seeing in the market,” she added. But investors heading into the final trading week of September will likely see a continuation of those losses, if history is any indication. Wall Street is currently wading through what’s considered the worst seasonal period of the year. Goldman Sachs’ Scott Rubner noted Friday that, since 1928, the median return in the S & P 500 for the last 10 out of 11 days in September was negative. “We could see the market experience additional weakness over the next several weeks,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Still, market participants are hopeful that could set Wall Street up for an end-of-year rally. Next week will also bring the release of several data points that will give traders insight into the consumer at a time when energy prices are spiking. The September consumer confidence report releases Tuesday, while August personal consumption expenditure comes out Friday. On the earnings front, Costco Wholesale will report Tuesday. Nike reports Thursday. Week ahead calendar Monday Sept. 25 8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August) 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (September) Tuesday Sept. 26 8 a.m. Building Permits final (August) 9 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (July) 9 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (July) 10 a.m. Consumer Confidence (September) 10 a.m. New Home Sales (August) 10 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (September) Earnings: Cintas, Costco Wholesale Wednesday Sept. 27 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders (August) Earnings: Micron Technology Thursday Sept. 28 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (Q2) 8:30 a.m. GDP (Q2) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (9/23) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (August) 11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (September) Earnings: CarMax , Nike Friday Sept. 29 BEA Domestic Auto Sales final (August) 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (August) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (August) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (August) 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories (August) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (September) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (September) Earnings: Carnival — CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Jeff Cox contributed to this report.
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